With the NHL’s March 4th trade deadline just over a week away, the time has come for some of the most interesting and sometimes maddening hockey discussion of the season. General Managers are busy meeting with their braintrusts and cooking up every conceivable salary cap-compliant scenario that could improve their teams’ chances of winning the Holy Grail of hockey. Meanwhile, fans all over the league sit not-so-patiently, trying to read the minds of those in charge of their favorite clubs. And rest assured that those same fans are ready to praise or pounce, depending on the outcomes.
So I will do my fanly duties and chime in on the chatter as well.
Where do the Flyers stand as the deadline looms near? It’s no secret that the salary cap will place some heavy constraints on the options that present themselves to Paul Holmgren now and in the immediate future. But can he realistically be expected to pull off a major deal? The kind that could push the Flyers from a 5 or 6 seed to a top 3?
The fact that the Flyers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year was amazing based on more than the recovery from the disastrous year before. It also was surprising because the goaltending had been thought of as questionable for most of the season, with neither Marty Biron or Antero Niittymaki really grabbing the reins. Not until late February did Biron finally emerge and turn the corner toward an outstanding postseason debut as a starter. Can Homer count on Marty to provide a repeat performance this year? Even though he still finds himself struggling to hold onto his starter’s job? And even if Marty doesn’t come back around, can Homer feel confident turning to Niittymaki when he also hasnt been able to put a stranglehold on the #1 job despite getting more than his share of chances over the last 2+ seasons?
Perhaps Holmgren could feel more confident with the goaltending situation if he had the defensive support necessary to make up the difference. Unlike last season, there are alot of unanswered questions surrounding the current Flyers defense. While puck handling and mobility are in no way in short supply on the blueline, the team continues to surrender way too many shots on net night after night. Not condusive to an already unsteady goaltending situation, and an indication that the team is in need of a dependable top-pairing physical defenseman that can shut down the opposition’s best offensive offerings.
So the Flyers find themselves with one of two clear, yet not so simple options. Get a definitive, undisputed #1 goaltender … OR … get a top-tier shutdown defenseman that can choke the life out of the league’s best scorers.
How does it happen? Let’s look at four of the biggest names being kicked around and the possibilities that surround them and the Flyers…
1. Niklas Backstrom
- The Minnesota Wild’s current #1 goalie is set to hit the open market on July 1st, and is reportedly very interested in doing so. The Wild as of now are sitting in the 10 spot in the West, and are only 5-5-0 in their last 10 games. Without a substantive turnaround and legit playoff push, the Wild are almost certain to deal Backstrom for some considerable talent, rather than let him walk at season’s end.
- How can the Flyers get him? – Not letting Backstrom hit the open market would be a wise, yet sizeable move by Paul Holmgren. Backstrom currently is in the final year of his contract paying $3.1 million. Bringing him on board now would have little impact on the current salary cap situation, but sending Martin Biron along with a package of other players to shed salary could both bring Backstrom to Philly and make enough room financially to keep him here. He is likely to be seeking at least $4.5 million per year as a UFA, and could fetch as much as $6 million depending on who’s offering. With Biron’s $3.5 million off the books, Homer would still need to make more salary room, and could do it by offering Joffery Lupul. A top prospect like James van Riemsdyk or Claude Giroux is also almost certainly going to be on Minnesota’s asking list, but they may be able to get away with sending Andreas Nodl if they sweeten the deal with a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. There is hope that the Flyers might not have to go all the way to the high end of a new contract if “Backs” is willing to forego the largest paycheck possible for a bonafide shot at the Cup for the foreseeable future. The Flyers can likely offer exactly that with the young, extremely talented core that has been assembled since the restructuring that began in the tail end of the 2006-07 season.
2. Jay Bouwmeester
- The Florida Panthers’ #1 defenseman is going to be one of the most hotly pursued players both at the trade deadline, and at the July 1st opening of free agency provided that someone doesn’t sign him to a new contract beforehand. Bouwmeester has made it clear that he doesn’t intend to return to Florida next season, but the Panthers are in a difficult position regarding a decision to trade him. The coaching and management staffs aren’t too quick to shop Bouwmeester around primarily because they are currently a playoff team, and unless Florida gets a significant defenseman back in a trade, moving Bouwmeester will definitely hurt their chances of remaining in the postseason picture. But the Panthers’ ownership isn’t very high on the idea of letting a player of J-Bo’s ilk just walk without getting value in return while they still can.
- How can the Flyers get him? – It goes without saying that the Flyers aren’t even going to be in the running for Bouwmeester’s services unless they are ready to part with some serious assets. First, the Panthers are going to be looking to replace their #1 defenseman’s size and shut down capabilities on the back end. Think Ryan Parent. Parent seems to be cut of the same cloth as Bouwmeester; big and positionally solid in the defensive end, yet not a huge physical presence. The big difference would be the salaries. Parent has one more year on his entry level contract at $765,000, while Bouwmeester could land the biggest contract of the summer, if not the last couple of years. Making room for him will not be easy by any stretch, but it can be done if the Flyers are willing to surrender a player like Scott Hartnell, who is set to make $4.2 million next season. But that will undoubtedly not be enough as the Panthers will be looking for either van Riemsdyk or Giroux. If Homer is committed to seeing both of those prospects on the Flyers roster in the future, than Bouwmeester is out of the question.
3. Manny Fernandez
- The Bruins have two very solid and dependable netminders, and by the looks of things, they will only be intending upon keeping one of them going into next season. Both Fernandez and Tim Thomas will be UFA’s come July 1st, and the Bruins are likely to try to resign Thomas, as he will no doubt come far cheaper than Fernandez who is already making $4.75 million this season. Thomas is now making just $1.1 million and even with a sizeable raise is the more sensible salary cap option, especially when he has made a solid case for himself as the clear #1. However, the knock on Fernandez is that in parts of 13 seasons in the NHL, Fernandez has played more than 44 games in a season just once. So while Fernandez has more than proven his worth from game to game, he has yet to define himself as a franchise goaltender.
- How can the Flyers get him? – The methodology behind getting a hold of Fernandez isn’t alot different than Backstrom, but the one thing the Bruins would like to have is a two-way power forward. Boston has been eyeing Edmonton’s Erik Cole for some time now, and many consider him to be the potential final piece to an already intimidating package. If the Cole deal doesn’t appear to be coming together, the Bruins GM, Peter Chiarelli, may be intrigued at the idea of bringing Hartnell in as a second choice since they are similar in what they can offer. Trouble is, there would be quite a few unhappy fans if they saw Hartnell going the other way without what they would consider a premier player pulling on a Flyers sweater. In any case, the Flyers are going to have to also part with at least one other handsome prospect and a 2nd or 3rd round pick to get this deal done.
4. Chris Pronger
- It’s unclear to this point whether or not the Ducks are going to part with either Scott Neidermayer or Chris Pronger as the deadline nears. Anaheim is currently sitting on the bubble of the Western Conference playoff picture, but without an indication that the Ducks are going to get it together for real, management might decide to move one of their two biggest defensive assets. Neidermayer is set for unrestricted free agency in July, and the well-traveled defenseman would be a great addition to any team seeking to help him win his 5th Stanley Cup. But for the Flyers, Chris Pronger would be the better fit with his intimidating blueline presence and physical dominance. Pronger still has 1 year left on his current contract worth $6.25 million, so there is no doubt that trying to fit him into next year’s plans would take some fancy manuveuring. But getting him in the orange and black could do enough to support the current goaltending and lend that last element to the back end for a long run toward the Cup.
- How can the Flyers get him? – The way to get Pronger on the Flyers is simple. Drop salary, and lots of it. The details of the trade are largely an afterthought because at least with most deadline acquisitions, you dont have to worry about accomodating an existing contract. Not that Homer should actually worry about those details afterwards, but most top-tier players you get at the deadline arent even sure if they will stick around. No need to make long term salary considerations if you won’t have the player long-term. But along with Pronger comes his big price tag, so expect at least one high-priced top 6 forward to be going the other way. And if the Ducks do indeed decide to make a trade of this magnitude, it will be clear that they will want young talent. Joffrey Lupul is out…he’s already made a tour of Anaheim. However, with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan, the Ducks seem to have plenty to build their team around up front. If they are set to lose defensive depth, Ryan Parent or Braydon Coburn might look particularly attractive to GM Bob Murray, as would Matt Carle or especially Luca Sbisa. Sbisa’s showing this season may make him untouchable though, much to the relief of Flyers fans. Draft picks, a promising young defenseman, and a top notch forward will get this deal done.
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